Much has been made about how the Tea Party can claim a huge victory over the recently completed debt ceiling agreement. Much has also been made about how President Obama gave away too much to the upstart wing of the Republican party and how he turned his back on the democrats. I disagree with both.
It is entirely possible, by allowing the Tea Party to taste victory today, Obama has assured himself and his party of a big victory next fall. And in doing so, he and his followers will get to enjoy watching the Republican party implode in the process.
Most democrats will never vote for a Republican presidential candidate. Don't ask me why but they just don't. "But what about a moderate Republican," you ask? Forget it. Republicans do not want a moderate candidate because he or she might end up caving in to democrats the way Obama just gave in to republicans.
Democrats know who their man is already and Obama has over a year to shape the presidential debate to his liking. Meanwhile, the Republican Party may well have a mutiny on their hands.
The Tea Party will not be going away in the next year. They will insist they have a larger voice when it comes to formulating the party platform and will argue their time has justly arrived based on Sunday night's agreement.
However, with the stock market showing little faith in the debt ceiling plan, if the economy continues to falter guess who will now be blamed? The onus is now on the Tea Party who will in turn argue we didn't go far enough with the cuts if the economy does not turn around.
Republican presidential candidates will also be pressured to identify themselves as either representative of the Tea Party wing or traditional wing of the party. Sitting on the fence and trying to placate both will no longer meet the needs of either group. Both will want to get behind their own candidate and fight it out through the primary process. By the time the primaries are done, the Republican Party should be pretty well split into one of two camps and this split should make for a fractured convention. It is even quite conceivable to see the Tea Party break away and run their own third party candidate if they feel the Republican Party is working to silence their movement.
All of this plays into the hands of President Obama and the democrats. While the Republican Party fights their own civil war, democrats will have had plenty of time to mount an efficient raid on retaking the house which would hand Obama all any president could ever hope for in a reelection; both houses of Congress and a splintered opponent.
So while the Tea Party may have won the battle over the debt ceiling debate, they may well have started a civil war within the Republican Party assuring democrats another four years as the majority power broker which would only make Sunday's short term victory a long term defeat.
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